The Coming War With Iran.....?

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  • Shareholders in USA war mongering companies are probably feeling a bit under fed recently...

    A full on sanctimonious war and regime change would boost their poor, rotten souls whilst stealing cash, tax and resources from the majority USA population..... It is the American dream (sic).....

  • Israel and zionism are in the equation too.

    Those who identify as Persians have a thing or two to say about Iran.

    And it does seem that Iran cannot present a unified governmental posture to the world because the competing factions within it have discreet power bases and income streams.

    And of course who in the world wants that arsehole Assad to resume governance of Syria?

    Lots going on. I reckon the USA could swing nato in favour of taking out the Revolutionary Guard and since it is the USA and Israel that would primarily be targeted by any Iranian Nuclear Deterrent I think it matters not a jot what the UN has to say about it.

  • Yes, it follows the same path. And the Israelis would very much like Iran taken out before they have the bomb, because they are a bit too close neighbours to be exchanging nuclear bombs, aren't they?

    If the USA can be made to take the lead, then Israel can join in for defence and self-protection reasons, of course, and the Saudis and others might also join them. But the danger is that such a conflict would grow far beyond the Gulf states.

  • So what to think about the latest little attacks on the Norwegian and Japanese tankers near Iran? And the quick finger of the US to point the blame at Iran, and the UK to do likewise. Note that other European countries have been much more careful, and have not rushed to judgement.

    Looking at the pictures of the tankers, it is quite evident that no torpedoes were used, that the explosions were small and limited in effect, and that this was not in any way a serious attempt to sink a tanker.

    Although I have no great regard for the Iranian regime, run by religious extremists, I have grave doubts about them being involved in this attack. It looks more like a 'false flag' exercise by the US and/or the right-wing Israeli government, to give them an excuse for steering closer to war with Iran, which has some of the biggest untapped oil reserves on the planet.

  • News agencies have reported that Iran is ramping up uranium production.... (in response to US sanctions)....

    Sanctions from interested states including the UK will be enforced once Irans uranium breaks the threshold of the existing agreement.

    Destabilisation will likely follow.

    And US led regime change and collateral damage will follow destabilisation...... Probably....

  • I've tried to read about Iran and the Revolutionary Guard.

    It seems unclear who governs Iran and to what extent the government is in control. The literature suggests that the Revolutionary Guard is ever expanding and holds financial assets independent of the Iranian government.

    It is posited that the Revolutionary Guard can act independently of government therefore the government can deny responsibility or accountability for actions of the RG.

    Hence the US defining the RG as a terrorist organisation and placing pressure on the Iranian government to take control of the terrorist RG and/ or be held accountable/liable for the RGs actions.

    Hint. Hint. Wink. Wink. It is possible that the RG would subsume government or cause civil war if confronted or outlawed by the Iranian government.

    So Trump is doing his Trumping again.

    Iran and the RG have been trumped but they just don't realise it yet.

  • Watched an Al Jazeera programme involving political academics a few days ago:-

    The US based academic more or less stated that Trump is on a vanity mission. And simply said that the agreement was fine but Trump wanted to put his stamp on it. He further stated that it would be the French who would need to act as intermediaries to indulge Trumps vanity project.

    I found the US commentator highly credible.

  • You cant really blame Iranians for having a hatred of the US and UK,it goes way back beyond the current Mullahs in charge.

    The overthrow of Masaddeq by joint British and US interference and imposition of Shah Reza Pahlavi as supreme ruler intil his overthrow in the 79 revolution has pretty much sown a deep distrust of the west.

    War with Iran is inevitable,either directly between US/puppet UK and Iran or a proxy war involving US backed Saudi Arabia Israel Turkey /Russia China backed Iran Syria.

    Watch dis space

  • Something weird is going on:

    Permanent UK warship supporting operation kipion (4 minesweepers plus rfa support ship +/- a warship before official opening of aircraft carrier capable naval base in Bahrain) arrives in the Persian gulf. Circa April 2019.

    Tankers in gulf attacked with explosives in May and June.

    July 4th saw Gibraltan and thereby UK authorities apply EU sanctions to a non EU ship (Grace1) and our media has not (as far as my search can find) confirmed that this seizure even occurred in the contested territorial waters over which Gibraltar might have lawful jurisdiction.

    The EU does not normally apply its sanctioning, trade rules to non member states.

    Iran claims the Grace1 seizure to be illegal and other than blind propaganda spouted by the usual media sources I can't find any presentation of evidence that proves the Iranians wrong in this regard.

    Anyone know better?

    The (Royal) Navy currently has no ship nor helicopter borne anti ship missiles other than the virtually defunct harpoon. The RN has only machine guns and 30mm cannon to realistically defend against fast moving boats. It is a vulnerable time for the navy.... Helicopter borne missiles are expected to appear next year and nimrod is being replaced but is not yet operational.

    Looks like the UK has been baited at a vulnerable time but if so why would they take the bait?

  • So the wonderful US of A could generously come to their aid, perhaps?

    Thus getting itself involved by looking as if it is only helping a nation with whom it purports to have a special relationship?

    "We merely came to the aid of our friends, and wow, we were attacked! So we just had to hit back in defence, along with a little help from our local friends...."

  • It is looking that way oldKeith.

    Continuing to decline US assistance would put UK navy personnel at excessive risk of harm aboard ships, and within a defence framework, that are/is not capable of survival without external support.

    All known in advance by UK authorities ... So why Oh why if they don't want war with Iran did they take the bait?

  • The Royal Navy has quite a lot more than machine guns and defunct Harpoon missiles. Do you know whats deployed there? there's at least one known Frigate there. There may be no carriers but where are the subs? and other parts of the fleet.The RN nor the government arent going to disclose where their resources are deployed or for what purpose,especially if theyre planning something big.

    Where are the extensive UAV drone operations centring? Where are special forces?

    The UK isnt capable of fighting a conventional war currently, its got no operational carriers for a start.Capable though of supporting other countries operations.

    I think theres obviously a cat and mouse game going on to draw Iran and Syria into a wider war involving the US but my own feelings are it will likely be a proxy war between Saudi Israel Iran Syria possibly Turkey,the biggest military in the region, all ably supported by Russia and the US maybe even China.

    Non of the big boys want to go head to head as no ones possibly going to win but they all want to settle territorial aims and scores in the Middle East. All of those Middle Eastern countries have substantial armies,arms and hate and motivation and countries backing them willing to make a huge fortune on weapon sales.

    Iran is certainly likely to take advantage of the change of PM and disarray in London. Not a great time to be caught with your pants down.

    Also worth bearing in mind that the present Government is in a weak popular position and hey,wouldnt a big war be a great poll booster and distraction from the Brexit fiasco.

    Similarities possibly with the Thatcher regime at the time of the Falklands when she needed a distraction and all the signals being sent were UK was too weak and not interested in protecting the islands.

  • Iran might well and does look to be facing off against (and or inspite of) that bluff and bluster though RT.

    If the implied threat of ever expanding UK special forces and a few submarines was sufficient then the UK wouldn't be buying poseiden 737s for maritime patrol and attack.

    And yes. Where are the drones?.... Probably and very sensibly not firing missiles that risk friendly casualties is the answer. But anyways Iran has sufficient boats to do severe damage before other nations could launch a response or even an appropriate defence.

    These service personnel are being placed in a high risk situation to defend ships whose owners do everything possible to avoid paying taxes that might fund protection.

  • Its the Revolutionary Guard that calls the shots in Iran not the Mullahs. Theyre not going to be intimidated by any military. The west sent Saddam Husseins army agsinst Iran and got its ass kicked.

    The Poseidon P8 is replacing the Nimrod as surveillance and airborne strategic mission computing and command.

    Nimrod was well overdue replacement. It would have been replaced regardless.

    Iran has the capability to do plenty of damage to western commercial interests in the region but in doing so it risks bringing Saudi UAE Bahrain Qatar and others into the fight especially Israel. They wont want that but they will enjoy humiliating the UK if they can.

    More is going on behind the scenes than is being revealed by the western media thats for sure.

  • Just been listening on the radio 4 to an interview with some hawkish American Republican Senator, who couldn't assure the Beeb interviewer enough that the Yanks are right behind us, yes sir!

    And if those mothers of Europeans didn't get their manure together and join us, then the Yanks would for sure get right out there in front of us, because they are sure spoiling for a fight with those Revolutionary Guards, etc, etc.

    So the current cool act of the British is probably a bit of play-acting, trying to draw Europe into a conflict, and if Europe isn't willing, our very willing American friends may have to be asked to give us a hand....

  • All of those combined gulf states v Iran are militarily and geographically and ideologically disadvantaged in what should be called the Iranian gulf (Persian Gulf).

    Iran has the advantage of borderline psychopathic/suicidal troops and many, many small boats and mini subs that are sufficiently armed to cause loss of life.

    Iran has already won the psychological warfare battle in the Persian gulf and the navy's of other gulf nations are collectively lacking the psycho/sucidal/number of boats advantages held by Iran.

    There's a whole alternative Persian Liberal government exiled but thriving in new build city sized headquarters holed up in ? Albania?.... They are Ready and well funded to take over governance of Iran.